What Are Base Sales, Promoted Sales, and Incremental Sales?

This Circana-published guide offers their definitions for both Base Sales and Incremental Sales, but here's our explanation:

In the Cruncher’s C&R dashboard, we can see Base Dollars, Incremental Dollars, and Dollar Sales (a.k.a. Promoted Sales) for any merchandising condition. For example, for the merchandising condition "Any Feature", the report shows:

• Base Dollars Any Feature
• Incremental Dollars Any Feature
• Dollar Sales Any Feature (a.k.a Promoted Sales Any Feature)

UNDERSTANDING BASE DOLLARS AND INCREMENTAL DOLLARS

Base Dollars: The estimated sales of a product that would’ve occurred in the absence of the condition (This is a hypothetical number: “if a feature had not been present, what would the sales have been?”). Base sales are calculated using a method that Circana calls “baselining”.

Incremental Dollars: The estimated additional Dollars (above Base Dollars) due to the presence of the condition. How did the feature boost the product’s sales that week?

Note: an item’s total sales will be the sum of its Base Dollars and Incremental Dollars, so in weeks where no condition was present, an item’s total sales will be the same as its Base Dollars because there are zero Incremental Dollars.

UNDERSTANDING PROMOTED SALES

Promoted sales are sales made in weeks where a condition existed. For instance, in a week where an item was on ad, Circana might calculate this:

Total Sales ($100) = Promoted Sales ($40) + Non-promoted Sales ($60)

Not all Promoted Sales are considered Incremental Sales, and this is why:

Circana notes that some of the unexpected or “bonus” sales which occur for an item in each week may not be due to the presence of a condition, but simply because a customer has a preexisting preference for the item…

Therefore, not all “promoted” sales are considered Incremental Dollars, because some of the “promoted” sales would have happened even if the condition hadn’t been occurring. For instance, when a customer goes to a store with a certain item on their list, and that item just happens to be on a price promotion (what luck!) their purchase would be considered Subsidized Base Sales.

Base Sales are the “Non-promoted Sales” + the “Subsidized Base Sales”.

HERE’S AN EXAMPLE OF HOW THIS WORKS

Total Sales ($100) = Promoted Sales ($40) + Non-promoted Sales ($60)

Circana calculates the Subsidized Base Sales to be $15.

• Circana then calculates Incremental Sales by subtracting the Subsidized Base Sales ($15) from the Promoted Sales ($40), equaling Incremental Sales of $25.
• Circana then calculate Base Sales by adding the Subsidized Base Sales ($15) and the Non-promoted Sales ($60), equaling Base Sales of $75.

Total Dollar Sales = Incremental Sales + Base Sales, so…

Total Sales ($100) = Incremental Sales ($25) + Base Sales ($75)